Archives : FIGHT FOR DOMINATION CONTINUES - 26/06/2015.

FIGHT FOR DOMINATION CONTINUES - 26/06/2015. 

NIFTY CLOSES ABOVE 200DMA.

It was second straight week of gains scored by the bulls. Such a pull-back is on expected lines especially coming on the back of a fall of 3700 points on the Sensex and 1200 points on the Nifty. In the process both the indices managed to close just above the 200dma. Despite the positive move, bearish patterns still remain valid. Only a close above 8668 for the Nifty will signal a move towards all time high levels, till then volatility will continue to rule the market.

 


FIGHT FOR DOMINATION CONTINUES - 26/06/2015.

NIFTY CLOSES ABOVE 200DMA.

It was second straight week of gains scored by the bulls. Such a pull-back is on expected lines especially coming on the back of a fall of 3700 points on the Sensex and 1200 points on the Nifty. In the process both the indices managed to close just above the 200dma. Despite the positive move, bearish patterns still remain valid. Only a close above 8668 for the Nifty will signal a move towards all time high levels, till then volatility will continue to rule the market.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

Sensex opened the week at 27427, made a high of 27968, low of 27417 and closed the week at 27811. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 495 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 8259, made a high of 8423, low of 8257 and closed the week at 8381. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 157 points.

On the daily charts, both the indices have formed a Bearish Harami pattern. It is a bearish reversal pattern which requires confirmation. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed an Opening White body Marubuzo. Thus despite bearish formations on the daily chart, the weekly charts are showing continuation of bullishness.

The market is witnessing a pull-back of the fall from Sensex 30024 to 26307 and Nifty 9119 to 7940 and the relevant correction levels are 27727-28165-28604 for the Sensex and 8390-8529-8668 for the Nifty. Hence the long term uptrend will resume once Sensex manages to stay above 28604 and Nifty above 8668.

This week, both the indices opened with an upward gap and as a result registered a daily as well as weekly gap between Sensex 27417-27404 and Nifty 8257-8250. This gap will act as an immediate support for the indices.

This week both the indices managed to close just above the long term average of 200dma (Sensex – 27774 and Nifty – 8370) and medium term average of 50dma (Sensex – 27320 and Nifty – 8262). Also both Sensex and Nifty continue to remain above the short term average of 20dma (Sensex – 27080 and Nifty – 8180). Thus the trend in the medium and long term timeframe has turned up whereas the trend in the short term timeframe continues to remain bullish. 

Bearish pattern formations still remain intact and hence one can still expect indices to achieve the target of Bearish Rising Wedge pattern which falls at 26049 for the Sensex and 7882 for the Nifty. Besides this, both the Sensex and Nifty had also completed an Ascending Broadening pattern and the target for that pattern is at Sensex 25034 and Nifty 7533. Coupled with this, both the indices have also completed a Head and Shoulders pattern and the target as per this pattern is at Sensex 24486 and Nifty 7425.

MACD and Price ROC are both positive and continue with their Buy signal. RSI (60) indicates continuation of bullish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator %K (91) has just gone below %D, thereby signaling a Sell. MFI (71) suggests positive money flow. OBV continues to make lower top lower bottom formation thereby giving a non-confirmation. ADX has decreased to 20, suggesting that the current trend has lost its entire strength. Directional Indicators continue with a Buy as +DI remains above –DI. Thus majority of Oscillators are suggesting a bullish bias in the near term.

Options data for July series indicates highest Put Open Interest buildup at the strike of 7900 and highest Call build-up is at the strike of 8500. Thus Option data suggests a trading range with support coming in at 7900 and resistance around 8500.

Trendline Resistance for the Sensex is at 28049.

Trendline Resistance for the Nifty falls at 8469.

INDEX LEVELS:

S3

S2

S1

CLOSE

R1

R2

R3

Nifty

8065

8163

8270

8381

8489

8574

8669

Sensex

26731

27091

27417

27811

28071

28384

28693

LAST WEEKS RECOMMENDATIONS:

STOCK

Reco. Price

Tgt

Reached

Lot Size

Profit

JubFood

1823

1875

1869

250

Rs.11,500

BhartiAir

434

450

436

500

Rs. 1,000

Buy IOC

382

394

402

1000

Rs.20,000

TVSMot

239

247

248

1000

Rs. 9,000

Havells

285

294

292

1000

Rs. 7,000

Total

Rs.48,500.

THIS WEEKS RECOMMENDATIONS:

STOCK

CMP

SL

Tgt-1

Tgt-2

Buy GodrejCP

1199

1175

1238

1278

Buy ReLCap

370

363

382

395

Buy Petronet

189

185

196

204

Buy GruhFin

256

251

264

273

Buy RCom

61

59

65

69

WATCH OUT FOR:

PetronetLNG

Disclaimer : The recommendations made herein do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness.

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