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Weekly analysis : LIFE HIGHS, BUT LACKING IN CONVICTION - 25/07/2014.

LIFE HIGHS, BUT LACKING IN CONVICTION –  25/07/2014.

MARKET BREADTH VERY NARROW.

Even though the market reclaimed the previous high, the conviction amongst the market participants is missing. The Nifty scaled past the top of 7808 with major help coming from IT sector stocks especially TCS. If we discard contributions from pharma and consumer goods stocks, the current rally has been extremely narrow. This does not augur well for the market as the current movement in Nifty is not reflecting the real mood of the broader market. This is not a new phenomenon in a Bull market and hence it will not be surprising to see the broader market especially mid-caps and small-caps try catching up with the Nifty later on. So if the Nifty sustains above the level of 7808, then we can expect a catch-up rally in the overall market.

FAILURE OF TWO PATTERNS.

The surprising part here is the failure of two patterns viz. the Bearish Rising Wedge on the daily charts and Bearish Engulfing on the weekly charts. Normally a pattern failure is usually followed by a strong directional movement which is missing currently. Hence it only conveys a complete sense of disbelief prevailing amongst the market participants.

 

 

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